As in the first three months of 2021, all paper mills continued at full steam ahead in the second quarter. Overall, this latter quarter was very successful for all paper mills and hence they have already started planning for more investment in new machines. Among the capacity developments, Kipas Holding has started trials at its fluting and liner mill and is planning to be operational in the third quarter of this year.
Expectations for 2021 are that total recovered paper usage in Turkey will be 5 million tonnes. With domestic collections projected to be around 3 million tonnes, imports of around 2 million tonnes will be needed to close the gap. Given that the regulation passed on September 3 last year limits imports to a maximum of 50% of total production, paper mills with high capacities could face problems by the final quarter.
Collection rates are expected to decline as a result of the 10-day Eid holiday in July whereas production will continue as normal, and so there could be a slight increase in recovered paper prices.
If COVID conditions improve worldwide, demand and prices could ease by the final quarter of 2021. A decline in e-commerce would result in price falls both in the EU and in China, which would lead to lower prices in the domestic market.