n° 167 – July 2020

For the Spanish economy, there has been no improvement in projections for this year because of a longer-than-expected extension of lockdown measures. According to analysts, the economy will contract by 11.5% in 2020 as compared to the 8% projected in the second quarter. However, they also foresee growth for 2021 of up to 7%. 

The situation is similar in Portugal, for which the European Commission is forecasting that the effects of COVID-19 will lead to a GDP decline of 9.8% this year - significantly more severe than the previous projection of -6.8% and the government’s own forecast of -6.9%.

The region’s supply of material and its economic recovery have been affected by fresh outbreaks of the pandemic, which have led to new lockdown measures in some areas. Additionally, movements of material are expected to be reduced in the coming weeks because of the summer holiday season.

Local scrap prices have not reflected the increases seen amid copper market volatility as these were pushed lower by weak demand owing to the uncertainty surrounding China’s new import reclassifications. Secondary aluminium prices appear to be increasing as ingot prices in Asia are rising and the supply side in Europe remains generally limited.