As we get ever closer to the Danish Parliament election to be held no later than June 17, the political situation is becoming more and more tense. Election campaigns are already in full swing even though Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen has yet to press the button. Many polls indicate that there will be a power shift in Denmark as the left wing seems to be ahead for the moment.
The Danes can face the election with reasonable confidence. The economy is quite strong and GDP is expected to grow at close to 2% in the coming years. The biggest risk to continuous development is the lack of skilled labour.
Swedish employment rates and general activity levels are quite high at present. Inflation is driven by wage growth which, for the moment, is running at around 2.5% per year in Sweden. Inflation is expected to be around 1.5% to 2% in 2019 and 2020.
The Norwegian economy seems to be in good health. High levels of activity in oil-related sectors seem to be the main driver for a falling unemployment rate and an increase in both wages and inflation. Currently, inflation is above the 2% mark.
The Finnish economy has been through a period of very strong growth but now we are possibly seeing the first signs of a slowdown. Finnish GDP grew by 2.3% in 2018 but a slowdown is expected in 2019 and 2020. Private consumption in Finland is supported by improved employment rates, higher wages and lower inflation.
Mogens Bach Christensen
H.J.Hansen Genvindingsindustri A/S (DNK), Board Member of the BIR Non-Ferrous Metals Division
Country
Nordic Countries
